Bolsa barata, gringo de volta e juros em queda: A equação que pode destravar os IPOs no Brasil

During four years, Brazil did not know what an IPO was. It was the biggest drought of capital openings in the history of the market. Not even in moments of economic recession, like the period of Dilma Rousseff, the country stayed so long without seeing companies entering the stock market. On the contrary: in the last years, there were capital closures. Altogether, 50 companies said goodbye to B3.

A combination of factors, like the surge of the basic interest rate, kept the flow of variable income away. Although the Ibovespa has risen 57% since 2021, investors – mainly locals – stayed outside of this party, attracted by the fat returns of fixed income.

Another obstacle for the IPOs was the history of the companies that made IPOs. According to a study by the financial advisory Seneca Evercore, of the 94 companies that opened capital since 2024, only 17 stayed in the green.

But, it seems that the game is going to turn. The stock market has changed the lock and rose 30% in a matter of months. The rally continued in January and February, although the conflict involving Iran cooled down a bit that movement.

While this is happening, in the US, two Brazilian fintechs opened capital. PicPay came out at the top of the indicative band and raised $500 million. It seemed like a signal that global investors were hungry for Brazil.

However, in the follow-up IPO, the one of Agibank, there was a change of tone. The own action of PicPay reached a 18% fall days after its debut, which activated the yellow light for the appetite of the foreign investor.

Added to this, the fear that artificial intelligences could affect the companies brought pessimism to the tech companies.

This ended up sliding in the fintech, which was forced to cut both the indicative band and the number of shares offered by half. Result: what was expected to be a big IPO did not happen.